“In Lebanon, Palestine and Syria, we are so strong that Israel cannot wage war on us whenever it wants to. It is not enough for Israel to have a strong possibility of victory because this entity cannot tolerate another defeat.”  (Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, February 16, 2010.)
 
Even if it is difficult for some doubtful people to believe it but Israel has been taking steps in recent weeks to lower tensions with Syria and prevent a misunderstanding that could spark an escalation along the northern border.
 
Indeed, an Israeli General Staff exercise code-named Firestones 12 last week did not include the scenario of a war with Syria – only a clash with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
 
Although originally considered, the Israeli occupation army opted not to include an element in the exercise that required the rushing of large numbers of conscript soldiers to the north, so that the Syrians would not mistake this as an offensive. Israel also relayed messages to Syria on both open and secret channels, assuring them that no offensive action was being considered. 
 
Israeli military sources told Haaretz that the desire to avoid escalating tensions was one of the considerations that led to the cancelation of part of the exercise.
 
In recent weeks, senior Iranian, Syrian and Hezbollah officials have commented extensively on the likelihood of war with Israel; in some instances they accused Israel of planning an offensive in the north. A week ago, Syrian President Bashar Assad hosted his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and met with the Hamas and Hezbollah leadership.
 
Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah noted on Monday that the Israeli enemy was forced to change its tone and to seek pacification on its northern border, warning that the choice of war has major and dangerous implications and it is not limited to Israel. Sayyed Nasrallah added that even Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is now saying that his country is unwilling to launch a war against any state. “They noticed that there is a new atmosphere in the region.”
 
Last month Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Mouallem warned Israel about launching any war against his country, saying it would turn into a wider conflict. “Israelis, do not test the power of Syria since you know the war will move into your cities,” Mouallem told journalists in the Syrian capital Damascus.
 
Mouallem had been questioned about comments made earlier by Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak. “In the absence of a peace agreement with Syria, we might find ourselves in a forceful conflict that could lead to an all-out war,” Barak’s office quoted him as saying in a speech to senior officers.
 
The Syrian minister said such statements “heightened the risk of war in the region.” “If such a war comes … it will be widespread even if it is waged against (just) southern Lebanon or Syria,” Mouallem warned, while excluding the chance of “peace negotiations being launched after such a war.”
 
In a lecture at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy last week, Barak said that Israel is closely following developments in Lebanon and that “the time has come to discuss this more directly and honestly.”
 
At a conference in memory of Haaretz defense analyst Ze’ev Schiff, Barak said that at its basis, UN Security Council Resolution 1701 seeks “to put an end to the Hezbollah anomaly in Lebanon, but instead of resolving the problem the resolution only made it more complicated.” Commenting on the size of Hezbollah’s missile and rocket arsenal in Lebanon, Barak mentioned a new number, 45,000, much higher than previous assessments.

In an article on the Washington Institute’s Web site, two American researchers write that Syria may have delivered to Hezbollah Russian-made shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles – the Igla-S (SA-24 by its NATO code). The authors say these missiles may pose a threat to the air force’s F-16 fighters.
 
In the past, U.S. officials told Arab media that Syria is training Hezbollah fighters in the use of the aging SA-2 anti-aircraft missiles, but others reportedly said that Syria may transfer SA-8 anti-aircraft missiles to Hezbollah. 

“We cannot accept the artificial distinction between the Hezbollah terrorists and the state of Lebanon,” Barak added. “We will not lead a confrontation, but if we are attacked we will not chase down Hezbollah’s lone terrorists …. The government of Lebanon and other sources of support and funding [of Hezbollah] will be part of the equation.”
 
Last month in commemoration of the anniversary of the martyrdom of Hezbollah leaders, Sayyed Nasrallah said that “when Israel found that nothing can demoralize the resistance, they went to threaten the Lebanese government and people of destroying the infrastructure. Just as we have infrastructure, there is infrastructure in occupied Palestine. We have one airport and they have airports, we have a few electricity stations and they have huge electricity stations, they have oil refineries and we have a few.”
 
His eminence continued, “The Israeli infrastructure is much bigger than ours and therefore I tell them the following: If you strike martyr Rafiq Hariri’s international airport in Beirut, we’ll strike your Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv. If you hit our ports, we will hit your ports. If you attack our refineries or factories, we’ll bomb your refineries and factories.”